Elliptic Curve Elliptic Curve

Methodology

Published estimates range from 25% to 34% precisely because methodologies differ. This one is explicit, and reproducible by anyone with a node.

TRANSCLUSION · METHODOLOGY.md §§0–18 Build step, not prose. METHODOLOGY.md is signed off as EC-M1 and is the text of this page. It is not copied into the site — the pipeline renders it here at build time so there is exactly one copy. Section headings below hold its place.

Reproduce it

AS OF2026-08-23 BLOCK963 740 METHODEC-M1 · UTXO SET
Block hash000000000000000000022c69b024a48a9e9f1e0445e881d6c31efeb199e774db
muhash (§15.2)1cc0d31d8db2c2abec9098a073f16dc46a73802f6f43b66d6766291304c7e882
Snapshot SHA-256 (§15.3)144f2208825d9d84ec5d9e76dcab718d8cbb0eedb530ba17fdc01f83f6686e30
Scanner commita62fe58
Node version/Satoshi:31.1.0/
Derivation mode (§12)full
BIP30 overwrites2
Verify your node agrees on muhash at this height before comparing any figure. ellipticcurve.net
PROSE · SPEC §2.3, §9 The scanner source link, the exact command line, and what a reproducer should expect to see (byte-identical canonical JSON, same SHA-256). Reproducibility is the product.

Validation gates

Eleven gates, in the order they run. A failed hard gate blocks publication; a failed soft gate requires investigation and a written note before sign-off.

Evaluated in code

Gate Ref Result
Snapshot height and best block agree with the node §15.1 PASS
Unfloored bucket sums equal total_amount exactly, in satoshis §15.1 PASS
P2PK cause inside the 1.5–2.0M BTC hard band 1 715 822.79 BTC measured §15.4 PASS
P2PK cause inside the 1.65–1.80M BTC inner band Soft: outside this band the run still publishes, but a written investigation note ships with the figure. §15.4 PASS
Read straight out of the three keys the snapshot writer emits — heights_match, partition_identity, p2pk_band. Nothing else on this page is inferred from them. ellipticcurve.net

Checked by hand

Gate 5, total-share context, is not implemented in code and is not computed on this page. The headline share is read against the published range by a person, and the ruling is recorded. Landing outside the range is legitimate — the ranges come from different counting rules — but it triggers a written explanation of which rule differences account for the gap, and that explanation ships here.

Measured share 354 878 ppm 35.48%
Published range (§15.5) 250 000–340 000 ppm 25–34%
Reviewed — NOT YET REVIEWED
RULE-DIFFERENCE NOTE · METHODOLOGY §15.5 Required before first publication if the measured share lands outside the published range: which rule differences account for the gap. This is filled from data/attestations.json, not typed into the page. Source: —— · Dated: ————-——-—— · Review due: ————-——-——
INVESTIGATION NOTE · METHODOLOGY §15.4 Required, without blocking, if the P2PK cause lands inside the 1.5–2.0M BTC hard band but outside the 1.65–1.80M BTC inner band. Ships with the figure. Source: —— · Dated: ————-——-—— · Review due: ————-——-——
No verdict on this page is derived. Both numbers are shown so the reader can make the comparison the reviewer made. ellipticcurve.net

Q-derivation check (§15.11)

One-off, soft. The §4.3 closure is computed over every Taproot output key Q ever created and intersected with the snapshot's hash-based UTXO set. The hit count is published either way: expected zero, which turns §4.1's exclusion of Q from an assertion into evidence. A non-zero count reopens that decision as a method change.

Hit count — not yet run

Parameters

Method-relevant parameters. tokens.css §11 is the single point of change; a mismatch between it and the pipeline configuration fails the build, and this page is built from the token file rather than from a second copy.

ParameterValueRole
Dust floor1 000 sat§7
Delta window90 d§8, nominal; each delta carries its actual window
Delta hide below0.25 pp§8
Notification threshold2 ppSPEC §6, declared in advance
Headline precision2 dp§8
Published range25–34%§15.5
Dormancy depth262 800 blocks§10, a counting rule and deliberately not a design token
Pipeline tick00:20 UTCVerification/rebuild on the publish host; not a measurement cadence (§12)

Sections

Headings hold METHODOLOGY.md's structure in place for the transclusion step.

  1. Principles
  2. What "exposed" means
  3. Data sources and snapshot identity
  4. Script classification
  5. The revealed-key and exposed-script sets (pass 1)
  6. Exposure rules by script type (pass 2)
  7. The three-cause decomposition
  8. The dust floor
  9. Denominator and shares
  10. Weightings
  11. Dormancy overlay
  12. Cohorts
  13. The historical series
  14. What this method does not count
  15. Known error sources and their directions
  16. Validation and reconciliation
  17. Published output
  18. Parameters
  19. Method versioning

Derived from public blockchain data using the methodology at /methodology. Independently reproducible from a full node. Estimates published elsewhere differ, in some cases materially, because definitions of exposure differ. Verify before relying on this.