Bitcoin supply in outputs with an exposed public key
| Band | Cause | BTC | Share of circulating | Behaviour |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P2PK | 1 715 822 | 8.5% | Key is written into the output script at creation. Exposed before any spend, permanently. | |
| Address reuse | 5 188 740 | 25.8% | Key becomes readable the first time the address is spent from. Anything returned to it stays exposed. | |
| Taproot (P2TR) | 219 245 | 1.0% | Tweaked output key Q sits in the output script from creation. Exposed always, not on spend. | |
| Total exposed | 7 123 808 | 35.48% | 30 901 285 outputs, at the 1 000 sat floor. |
Published estimates of exposed supply range from 25% to 34% of circulating bitcoin, and BIP-361 states its own figure as over 34% — so the top of that range is a floor, not a ceiling.
They differ because the counting rules differ: whether an output that was spent from and then refunded still counts, whether a Taproot output is counted as exposed at creation or only at spend, and how dust and provably-lost outputs are handled.
This method counts an output as exposed when its public key is readable from chain data alone — in the output script by construction, or recoverable from a key that a spend has already revealed. Outputs below the dust floor are excluded from the numerator and left in the denominator, which makes the share conservative. The canonical figure is recomputed irregularly by design, and every figure carries the block it was measured at. Full method.
Live, per block
Live, per block. Outputs whose public key is exposed by construction — written into the output script at creation. This is a classification of outputs by script type; it does not mean the bitcoin is spendable, compromised, or claimable by anyone today.
| Construction cause | BTC | Outputs |
|---|---|---|
| P2PK (incl. bare multisig, non-standard key-bearing) | 1 714 872 | 586 718 |
| Taproot (P2TR) | 220 251 | 6 623 040 |
| Hash-based (P2PKH / P2SH / P2WPKH / P2WSH, lumped) | 18 144 385 | 80 903 669 |
| Circulating supply | 20 082 510 | 165 224 627 |
Exposed supply over time, by cause
The pipeline that emits this SVG is not built (SPEC §9 step 4). No chart renders until it
is, and no illustrative geometry from assets/ is substituted.
Second-order series
The headline reduces to one number by design (METHODOLOGY §8, SPEC §14 question 1) and is never published without the decomposition. The cuts that carry the rest of the finding live on the exposure page: exposed share by cohort, the Taproot trend, newly-exposed per day, and value-weighted against UTXO-weighted counts.
Derived from public blockchain data using the methodology at /methodology. Independently reproducible from a full node. Estimates published elsewhere differ, in some cases materially, because definitions of exposure differ. Verify before relying on this.