Elliptic Curve Elliptic Curve

Exposure

The cuts behind the headline. Every figure on this page is measured at one block, and figures from different blocks are never added together.

Decomposition

AS OF2026-08-23 BLOCK963 740 METHODEC-M1 · UTXO SET
Band Cause BTC Share of circulating Behaviour
P2PK 1 715 822 8.5% Key is written into the output script at creation. Exposed before any spend, permanently.
Address reuse 5 188 740 25.8% Key becomes readable the first time the address is spent from. Anything returned to it stays exposed.
Taproot (P2TR) 219 245 1.0% Tweaked output key Q sits in the output script from creation. Exposed always, not on spend.
Total exposed 7 123 808 35.48% 30 901 285 outputs, at the 1 000 sat floor.
Shares of circulating supply, unfloored denominator. ellipticcurve.net

Sub-lines

The cause labels are coarse on purpose — three bands, per the chart contract. These sub-lines keep them auditable: what "P2PK" folds in, and how much of "address reuse" is literal same-script reuse versus keys an adversary can re-derive.

AS OF2026-08-23 METHODEC-M1 · UTXO SET
Sub-line BTC Outputs Share of circulating
P2PK · bare multisig 53 543 257 0.0%
P2PK · nonstandard keybearing 0 11 0.0%
P2PK · p2pk proper 1 715 769 44 576 8.5%
Address reuse · derived only 2 568 43 021 0.0%
Address reuse · keyless reveal Overlay, not a share of the split above: these outputs are already counted in same-script or derived-only. Do not add this row to them. 2 895 0.0%
Address reuse · same script 5 186 171 23 630 719 25.8%
Derived-only is key reuse rather than address reuse; the split is what keeps the label honest. Keyless-reveal is an overlay on that split, not a third part of it. ellipticcurve.net

Reuse attribution — Core-8 and extended

How much of the reuse cause the eight core derived classes account for, and how much the remaining exotic classes add. Two distinct cadences: monthly observations of all 22 exotic classes in one batch, sharing one as-of; and the synchronized all-class aggregate, pinned to its full-scan snapshot.

AS OF2026-08-31BLOCK964 811METHODEC-M1 · MONTHLY SCAN · REACHABILITYCOVERAGE22 / 22 CLASSES

Monthly observations of all 22 exotic derived classes, from one batch on the last Sunday of the month. Every class shares the batch's common as-of height and date; they are never summed into a current total. The batch reports reachability, not exclusivity — the synchronized exotic-exclusive aggregate stays pinned to the last full scan below. A classification of outputs by script type; it does not mean the bitcoin is spendable, compromised, or claimable by anyone. This is a monthly series, independent from the live construction-cause series on the front page.

Batch as-of 2026-08-31 at block 964 811 (10d ago); reconciled against canonical tip 964 923 (lag 112 blocks). Scanner sha256:aba0689f39fa.

ClassHitsAs-of heightScanned
compressed · p2sh-p2pk92964 8112026-08-31
compressed · p2wsh-p2pk24964 8112026-08-31
compressed · p2sh-p2wsh-p2pk0964 8112026-08-31
compressed · p2sh-p2pkh30964 8112026-08-31
compressed · p2wsh-p2pkh21964 8112026-08-31
compressed · p2sh-p2wsh-p2pkh1 374964 8112026-08-31
uncompressed · p2sh-p2pk1964 8112026-08-31
uncompressed · p2wsh-p2pk1964 8112026-08-31
uncompressed · p2sh-p2wsh-p2pk0964 8112026-08-31
uncompressed · p2sh-p2pkh10964 8112026-08-31
uncompressed · p2wsh-p2pkh3964 8112026-08-31
uncompressed · p2sh-p2wsh-p2pkh0964 8112026-08-31
hybrid · p2pk0964 8112026-08-31
hybrid · p2pkh1964 8112026-08-31
hybrid · p2wpkh0964 8112026-08-31
hybrid · p2sh-p2wpkh0964 8112026-08-31
hybrid · p2sh-p2pk0964 8112026-08-31
hybrid · p2wsh-p2pk0964 8112026-08-31
hybrid · p2sh-p2wsh-p2pk0964 8112026-08-31
hybrid · p2sh-p2pkh0964 8112026-08-31
hybrid · p2wsh-p2pkh0964 8112026-08-31
hybrid · p2sh-p2wsh-p2pkh0964 8112026-08-31
One batch, one as-of; the 22 classes share it and are never summed. Next batch: last Sunday of next month. ellipticcurve.net
AS OF2026-08-23BLOCK963 740METHODEC-M1 · FULL SCAN · PINNEDDERIVATIONfull

The reuse-attribution split, measured once by a full derivation over 1 669 743 043 revealed keys at the snapshot above. It is not updated per block: it is pinned to that scan and refreshed only by a future full scan. A classification of outputs by script type; it does not mean the bitcoin is spendable, compromised, or claimable by anyone.

AttributionBTCScriptsShare of target value
Reachable by the 8 core classes4 080 4948 403 89299.9390%
Exotic-exclusive (22 exotic classes only)2 4901 5550.0610%
Pinned to snapshot height 963 740 (2026-08-23T14:43:06Z). The 8 core classes capture 99.9390% of the value behind hash-based targets; the 22 exotic classes add the rest. Refreshed only by a future full scan. ellipticcurve.net

Value-weighted against UTXO-weighted

A million dust outputs is not a million bitcoin. Both weightings, side by side.

AS OF2026-08-23 METHODEC-M1 · UTXO SET DUST FLOOR1 000 SAT
Set BTC (floored) Outputs (floored) BTC (floor 0) Outputs (floor 0)
Exposed 7 123 808 30 901 285 7 124 165 102 550 089
Never exposed 12 947 149 57 418 101 12 947 176 63 026 726
Circulating — — 20 073 960 165 712 801
Numerator floored, denominator unfloored — the share is conservative by construction (§7). ellipticcurve.net

Exposed share by cohort

Coins that have never moved since 2010 against coins created last year, by creation year of the output.

AS OF2026-08-23 METHODEC-M1 · UTXO SET
Year P2PK BTCAddress reuse BTCTaproot (P2TR) BTC
2009 1 078 265500
2010 581 01851 5590
2011 43 71643 5020
2012 9 44341 2920
2013 3 31366 9530
2014 2247 7170
2015 2034 7210
2016 548 2890
2017 1101 8130
2018 065 6340
2019 083 0900
2020 080 2490
2021 0356 229254
2022 1275 0602 626
2023 12153 6296 839
2024 0537 71230 236
2025 0952 34645 167
2026 02 248 887134 120
Cohort year is taken from the block header timestamp, so year boundaries are accurate to hours, not seconds. ellipticcurve.net

Dormancy overlay

Exposed and untouched for at least 262 800 blocks. This is the measurable part of the lost-coins question, and it stops there.

AS OF2026-08-23 METHODEC-M1 · UTXO SET CUTOFF BLOCK700 940
CauseBTCOutputs
P2PK 1 715 809 376 158
Address reuse 992 396 9 488 463
Taproot (P2TR) 0 1
Height-based, UTXO-level, no address clustering. "Dormant" is not "lost". ellipticcurve.net
PROSE · SPEC §14 questions 2 and 3 Two open questions the owner has not settled and this page must not pre-empt: whether the dormancy overlay attempts to identify lost coins at all, and whether Satoshi-attributed coins are broken out. EC-M1 does neither. Source: —— · Dated: ————-——-—— · Review due: ————-——-——

Newly exposed per day

The rate at which the problem grows, by cause, from the flow series.

AS OF2026-08-23 METHODEC-M1 · UTXO SET

unspent-at-snapshot outputs, floored; spent outputs drop out of historical days

TABLE · METHODOLOGY §16 flows Daily rows render from flows.days. Bound as a chart rather than a table once the pipeline emits chart SVGs — a multi-thousand-row table is not a reading of this series.
Spent outputs drop out of historical days: this is a stock series sliced by creation day, not a flow ledger. ellipticcurve.net

Movement

AS OF2026-08-23 METHODEC-M1 · UTXO SET
Comparison Prior block Change Actual window
Previous canonical — — —
Most recent canonical at least 90 days older — — —
The canonical series is irregular by design, so each comparison states the window it actually covers rather than the window it was aiming for. ellipticcurve.net

Reported non-causes

Buckets that are counted and published but are not exposure. They are here because §15.1's partition identity requires every output to be classified exactly once, and a reader checking that sum needs to see them.

AS OF2026-08-23 METHODEC-M1 · UTXO SET
BucketBTCOutputs
nonstandard 2 617 249
p2a 0 0
unspendable 0 1 525
witness future 0 78
Undefined witness programs are classically anyone-can-spend; quantum adds nothing to them, which is why "not exposed" here needs its caveat. ellipticcurve.net

Taproot exposure trend

AS OF2026-08-23 METHODEC-M1 · UTXO SET

The pipeline that emits this SVG is not built (SPEC §9 step 4). No chart renders until it is, and no illustrative geometry from assets/ is substituted.

The behavioural signal: Taproot exposure moves in both directions, and the chart is built so a decrease reads as the skyline falling. ellipticcurve.net

Derived from public blockchain data using the methodology at /methodology. Independently reproducible from a full node. Estimates published elsewhere differ, in some cases materially, because definitions of exposure differ. Verify before relying on this.